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Fuel prices to increase by 10% from October 16 – COPEC predicts

The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) is predicting a 10 percent increase in the price of petroleum products effective October 16, 2022.

The price adjustment falls in line with the second pricing window for the month of October.

The Chamber in a statement said that from the observed figures within the downstream industry and forex movements, it anticipates an average price escalation of about 10 percent for both petrol and diesel based on the increase in the price of crude oil on the international market and the depreciation of the cedi.

“Between the current window and the next window due, 16 Oct 2022, Crude oil price is observed to have seen an increase of 3.66% from $89.46 to $92.73 per Barrel, whilst the Dollar index has further gone up by about 4.08% from GHS10.21 to GHS10.627 per Dollar as per Government rate (Conservative figures) though actual market rates are quite higher currently,” COPEC noted.

The Chamber, however, called on government to adopt urgent measures to stabilise the cedi to the US Dollar exchange rate in order to prevent the pricing of petroleum products reaching an impending disaster.

Read the full statement below:

CHAMBER OF PETROLEUM CONSUMERS
ACCRA

14/10/2022

FUEL PRICES TO GO UP FURTHER BY 10% FROM 16TH OCTOBER

The upcoming second fuel pricing window of October 2022 which commences on Sunday, 16/10/2022, fuel prices across pumps within the country are projected to see an increase of average 10% for both petrol and diesel.

From observed figures within the downstream industry, and forex movements, COPEC anticipates an average price escalation of about 10.12% for both petrol and diesel*_ based on the following analysis.

Between the current window and the next window due, 16 Oct 2022, Crude oil price is observed to have seen an increase of 3.66% from $89.46 to $92.73 per Barrel, whilst the Dollar index has further gone up by about 4.08% from GHS10.21 to GHS10.627 per Dollar as per Government rate (Conservative figures) though actual market rates are quite higher currently.

The corresponding international processed petroleum prices for the next window averages as follows:

Petrol: $964.75/MT (up by 15.72%)
Diesel: $1,097.15/MT (up by 9.60%)

Internally, the projected average price of both Petrol and Diesel for the next window are expected to be GHS13.77/L, showing a price jump of 10.12% over the current Mean fuel Prices for both products across the various OMCs trading.

From observed data, Petrol, which is currently selling at an industry average of GHS11.06/L is likely to be sold at GHS12.38/L (11.88% higher) from 16 October 2022 whilst Diesel currently selling at an industry average of GHS13.95/L is likely to be sold at GHS15.16/L. (8.72% higher)

For LPG, the international price is estimated to hit $618.34/MT (up by 3.81%); the price of LPG is likely to go up by 5.04% to sell around GHS10.21/kg.

Considering no sudden jerks in Crude Oil pricing, that may lead to changes in Petrol, Diesel and LPG Prices on the International market, the Mean Ex-pump prices are expected to be within the projected figures by +/-2% as indicated below:

Petrol: GHS12.12/L to GHS12.63/L
Diesel: GHS14.86/L to GHS15.46/L
LPG: GHS10.01/kg to GHS10.41/kg

We implore on the petroleum service providers to be considerate of applying the full force of the indexes in their pricing as times are rough for everyone, we are without equivocation, mindful that, the projected figures are conservatively lower than what the actuals could be due to the continuous depreciation of the local currency.

COPEC is once again, further, admonishing the Government to do whatever it deems neccesary, to ensure an urgent stabilisation of the cedi to the Dollar exchange rate in order to prevent pricing of petroleum products getting to an impending disaster as the effect of these steep increases in fuel prices cuts across all sectors of the local economy and to also further ensure some drastic reductions of some of the existing taxes and levies on Petroleum products to help ease the burden on consumers.

Signed.

Duncan Amoah
Executive Secretary.

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